Scenarios’ dimensions

dimensions worst case best case
Size of Economy collapse high growth
Population Size high growth collapse
Level of Technology stagnation very high
Degree of Globalization isolated communities global civilization
Government Intervention in Economy strong regulation laissez-faire
Pollution very high very low
International Income Equality very low very high
Intranational Income Equality very low very high
Degree of Conflict many wars/world war peace
Fossil Fuel Use high virtually zero
Energy Use high low
GHG Emissions high low
Climate Change (yes/no) severe climate change no climate change
Structure of Economy agrarian/subsistence quaternary (leisure)
Percentage of Older Persons in Population ageing population primarily young population
Migration high low
Human Health worsening Improving
Degree of Competition low high
Citizen Participation in Governance autocracy meaningful participation
Community Vitality breakdown very strong
Responsiveness of Institutions irrelevant very responsive/citizen-driven
Social Equity low high
Security Activity high low
Conflict Resolution inadequate Successful
Technological Diffusion low high
Rate of Innovation low high
Renewable Resource Availability low high
Non-renewable Resource Availability low high
Food Availability low high
Water Availability low high
Biodiversity low high
Threat of Collapse likely unlikely


source: Climate Change Scenarios See also XlnkS628

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Climate Change Scenarios

The IPCC has imagined a series of future world scenarios to try predicting the effect of society choices on climate change. The global futures scenarios vary widely along different demographic, socio-economic, and technological dimensions (follow the scenario dimensions below). Scenarios range from economic collapse to virtually unlimited economic prosperity; from population collapse (caused by famine, disease, and/or war), to stabilization near current levels, to explosive population growth. Governance systems range from decentralized, semiautonomous communities with a form of direct democracy to global oligarchies. Some scenarios posit large improvements in income and social equality, within and among nations, while others foresee a widening of the income gap. Many scenarios envisage a future world that is high-tech, with varying rates of diffusion, but some envisage a world in which a crisis of some kind leads to a decline in technological development and even a loss of technological capability. Most scenarios are pessimistic with respect to resource availability; some are more optimistic, pointing to the ability of technology and demand changes to alleviate scarcity. Most scenarios also project increasing environmental degradation; more positively, many of these scenarios portray this trend reversing in the long-term, leading to an eventual improvement in environmental quality. The sustainable development scenarios, on the other hand, describe a future in which environmental quality improves throughout the scenario.
weblink: IPCC web sitefrom: IPCCin detailsee also: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – IPCC XlnkS628 XlnkC17DC

Obnoxico

A metaphorical firm, imagined by Buckminster (Bucky) Fuller. A growing megacorporation flooding the world with needless knick-knacks. Working life’s hours away at that sort of enterprise soon reduce people to robots – a heavy price to pay for security. This creates a fortress-building, conservative mind, adverse to change. Investment, equity and fear of ageing take precedence on imagination and creativity. For Bucky, there is another path for security: being too fast and agile to hit. This strategy requires taking chances and thinking for yourself.
from: Buckminster Fullerin detail XlnkS627 XlnkC185F

Good utopias

Eliminating poverty Promoting community values over individualism, democracy without border over nationalism, inclusivity over exclusivity. and also … Creating before spending Accepting differences before imposing domination. Looking at values rather than prices. Listening before judging Living rather surrounding ourselves with objects.
source: Utopia See also XlnkS626

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Other forms of utopia

Cybertopia: Information and communication technologies enable a highly diverse, individualistic and innovative global community. Technotopia: or high-tech optimism where technologies and markets create prosperity, happiness, and solve all the problems of the world.
source: Utopia See also XlnkS626

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Utopia

Literally, “That exists nowhere, a no-place (u-topos). An ideal? Maybe, but programmed, organized, planned. In the worst case, an imposed ideal. It is not a new concept, Platon, Thomas More or Fourier have all invented and described Utopias. It may describe both an ideal society that will exist some day or an imaginary society that will never exist. In the first case, it is an objective to reach, in the later, a situation to avoid. In all cases, utopias are always dangerous ideas as they presuppose brainwashing, constraints, and may favor totalitarism.
in detail XlnkS626

Water requirement and food

Food production requires huge amount of water. One tonne of wheat needs 1,000 tonnes of water. If our daily drinking average is 4 liters per day, the water required to produce our food is 2000 liters or 500 times more. In affluent society, where grain is used in the form of livestock products, water consumed for our daily food production can reach 4,000 l/d.(FAO 2003).
source: Water See also XlnkS4CD

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